NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+3.5, 40)
Chiefs’ soft sked vs. Texans’ peaking defense
Kansas City’s 10-game winning streak to end the NFL season is impressive, especially considering the Chiefs stumbled out of the blocks with a 1-5 SU start. However, poking around at this winning run – like a new-born baby – we find that there are few soft spots. The most glaring is the lack of push back from opposing defenses.
During those 10 games, Kansas City faced about as much resistance as a Slip-N-Slide, playing just two teams ranked lower than 18th in total defense: Denver No. 1 and Baltimore No. 8. The other eight games were against Pittsburgh (21st), Detroit (18th), San Diego twice (20th), Buffalo (19th), Oakland twice (22nd), and Cleveland (27th).
Houston, which ranked third in total defense on the season, took a while to find its familiar footing on that side of the ball. The Texans stop unit was blasted for some big numbers against ho-hum opponents, like Atlanta and Miami, but tightened the bolts during the home stretch and won three in a row to punch a postseason ticket.
Sure, Houston took on cupcakes as well, facing Indianapolis, Tennessee and Jacksonville in the final three contests. But the Texans still limited those divisional foes to a grand total of 22 points and allowed an average of just under 221 yards in that span – lowest in the NFL. Another big plus is the resurgence of J.J. Watt, who had just four sacks in the first six weeks before exploding for 13.5 in the last 10 games, including three in the finale versus the Jaguars.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3, 45.5)
Steelers without Williams vs. Bengals’ red-zone defense
Veteran running back D’Angelo Williams was a godsend for the Steelers, who leaned on him when Le’Veon Bell was suspended to start the year and again when Bell was lost for the season. Williams’ smash-mouth style has stirred up memories of Jerome Bettis, especially when Pittsburgh enters its opponent’s 20-yard line, scoring six of his 11 touchdowns inside the red zone. In fact, he had 34 red-zone touches this season, which is seventh most for running backs in the league.
Williams is a big question mark for Saturday’s Wild Card showdown with Cincinnati, missing practice this week with a foot injury that has the bruising back in a walking boot. He was a major cog in Pittsburgh’s 33-20 win over the Bengals in Week 14, rushing for 76 yards and two touchdowns – both on which came on 1-yard runs at the goal line. Without Williams, the Steelers are expecting to go with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the No. 1 rushing option.
Cincinnati has been among the top defenses in the league all season and turns up the intensity when teams actually do crack the red zone. The Bengals, who have allowed opponents inside the 20-yard line only 38 times this season, have watched those foes find the end zone just over 47 percent of the time – fifth lowest in the NFL.
Those numbers get slimmer inside Paul Brown Stadium. Cincinnati is giving up TDs on just 33 percent of their opponents’ red-zone tries and has been drum tight against the run as well, limiting rival rushers to four total TDs on the ground at home this season – two of those coming to Williams in Week 14. In the Week 8 meeting in Pittsburgh, the Bengals budged for 116 rushing yards from Bell and Williams with no rushing scores.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+5, 39.5)
Seahawks’ troubles in the cold vs. Vikings’ frigid home field
The Seahawks have enjoyed one of the best home-field edges in the NFL for years. Not only is the crowd at CenturyLink Field among the loudest in pro sports, but the damp and dank Seattle weather has plagued visiting teams during the winter months.
Now, the Seahawks find themselves on the other end of that edge during the Wild Card Weekend. The Sunday forecast in Minnesota is calling for temperatures hovering around 0 degrees Fahrenheit with a wind chill making it feel much colder than that. It is lining up to be one of the coldest games in NFL history.
While the Pacific Northwest has plenty of rain, it is one of the warmer annual climates in the country, putting the two-time NFC champs out of their element. Cold has had a negative effect on the Seahawks in recent years, going just 2-4 SU and ATS on the road when the mercury dips below freezing (32 degrees F) since 2005-06, including a 0-4 SU and ATS mark since 2007-08. During those previous four chilly road games, the Seahawks have been outscored 149-74.
The last time Seattle played in anything close to Sunday’s climate was a 21 F degree day at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, losing 24-20 to the Chiefs as a 1-point road favorite in Week 11 of last season. “There’s no simulating zero degrees,” Seattle CB Richard Sherman told the media this week. “I guess I could go upstairs in the freezer, shut the doors, sit there for a few minutes?”
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+1, 45.5)
Packers’ poor pass protection vs. Redskins’ raging pass rush
When you look at how bad the Packers’ offensive line has been this season, it’s a near miracle Aaron Rodgers didn't join the long list of starting quarterbacks that were put on the shelf. Rodgers was sacked 47 times during the regular season – 17 times more than 2014 – and has been hit a total of 104 times, which ranks seventh most in the NFL.
Things have gotten especially hectic for “Discount Double Check” in recent weeks. Rodgers has been laid out 23 times in the last six games with 14 of those coming in the previous two: nine times in the loss to Arizona and five in the loss to Minnesota in Week 17. Injuries to the offensive line has spoiled any chemistry in Green Bay and has Mike McCarthy shuffling his protectors like musical chairs.
Washington comes into the postseason on a four-game winning streak, thanks in large part to a defense that has feasted on opposing passers. The Redskins, who have 38 total sacks on the season, picked up 21 of those in the first 12 weeks of the schedule – an average of just under two sacks per game in that span. But in the final four games of the season, Washington has recorded 17 sacks for an average of 4.25 per outing.
Linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith have been blowing up blockers in recent weeks, combining for eight of those 17 sacks in the past four games. To protect from those outside rushers - and make up for a lack of depth on the o-line – Green Bay will use plenty of two-tight end sets as well as a fullback to give Rodgers time. That inability to spread out receivers takes some bite out of the Packers’ pass game.
